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Key Takeaways
- Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to gain 3-5x this cycle rather than repeat past 10x-plus rallies, citing growing institutional ownership
- On-chain data show Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio never fell below 1 this cycle, suggesting holders stayed broadly in profit
- A 3x-5x move from June’s ~$58,000 low implies targets of roughly $174,000 to $290,000, versus VanEck’s separate $100,000-$500,000 forecasts
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said he expects Bitcoin’s current bull cycle to deliver gains of three to five times current levels rather than repeating the more explosive 10x-plus rallies of past cycles. He also expects the bear market that eventually follows to be milder than previous downturns, citing a shift in who now owns Bitcoin and what kind of capital is driving its price.
A More Institutional Market Changes the Shape of the Cycle
Ju attributed his outlook to Bitcoin’s larger overall market size and growing institutional ownership, contrasting the current environment with earlier cycles that he said were driven largely by retail-driven speculative capital, the kind of trading activity he linked to the roughly 80% crashes that followed previous bull runs.
Writing on X, Ju pointed to on-chain data supporting that view, noting that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio, a metric comparing the asset’s market price to the average price at which coins last moved, never fell below 1 during the current cycle.
That threshold is often used as a rough proxy for whether the average holder is sitting on an unrealized profit or loss across the market as a whole.
On-Chain Signals Point to a Steadier Market
Ju said that even though some individual investors took losses during the cycle, holders as a group never collectively went underwater on their positions, and he pointed to the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin’s profit-and-loss index, a metric that typically lags behind price turning points, as currently forming what he described as a meaningful inflection.
He also cited a rise in Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. This is a measure of the aggregate value at which coins in circulation last changed hands. Along with that, he cited a pause in selling from long-term holder wallets and the buildup of large long futures positions by traders positioning near the cycle’s recent low.
Taken together, those signals paint a picture of a market where fewer participants are selling at a loss and more capital is entering with a longer time horizon. This combination would typically support steadier price appreciation rather than the kind of rapid, leverage-fueled spikes that have characterized past Bitcoin cycles.
“None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed.”
Ju’s broader point was that a calmer cycle without a 10x parabolic move also implies avoiding the roughly 80% crash that has historically followed such rallies, a trade-off he argued is more likely to attract patient, long-horizon capital rather than the short-term speculative money that has driven sharper boom-and-bust cycles in the past.
What Ju’s Range Implies From Bitcoin’s June Low
Bitcoin’s recent price action offers some support for Ju’s framing. The asset reached $87,395 on Sept. 21, its highest level since late January, following its first weekly close above the 50-week moving average since November 2025.
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn has previously described reclaiming that average as a strong technical signal that a prior bear-market low has held.
Before that close, Bitcoin had traded below its 50-week moving average for 45 consecutive weeks, a stretch that included its cycle low near $58,000 in late June. Measured from that low, Bitcoin has since gained roughly 49%, trading around $86,380 as of this writing.
Price Targets and How They Compare
Applying Ju’s three-to-five-times framework to that June low produces a range of approximate price targets. A 3x move would put Bitcoin near $174,000, about 38% above its prior record of $126,080 set on Oct. 6, 2025. A 4x move would put the price near $232,000, and a 5x move would put it near $290,000.
That range sits between two separate forecasts from VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, who has projected Bitcoin reaching $100,000 next year and $500,000 by 2029, illustrating how widely price targets can vary even among analysts working from similar underlying data.
Ju’s framework is notable less for the specific price levels it implies than for what it argues about market structure: that the same forces making Bitcoin’s rallies less explosive, deeper institutional participation and more patient capital, are also what could make its downturns shallower than the roughly 80% peak-to-trough declines that have defined the asset’s history.
Whether that trade-off holds through a full cycle, including any eventual downturn, remains untested against Ju’s specific framework.
