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Key Takeaways
- 1789 Capital is leading a $1 billion round valuing Polymarket at $21 billion, up roughly 40% from $15 billion.
- The firm’s total Polymarket commitment reaches about $500 million, adding to Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory ties to Kalshi.
- CFTC Chair Michael Selig has publicly praised both platforms while opposing state efforts to regulate them directly.
1789 Capital, the venture capital firm led by Donald Trump Jr., is leading a $1 billion funding round in prediction market Polymarket that values the company at $21 billion. A spokesperson for the firm confirmed the investment Monday, adding to an existing stake the firm built earlier in Polymarket’s growth.
Firm Adds $300 Million to an Existing Stake
1789 Capital spokesperson Alexa Henning said the firm is contributing about $300 million to the round, on top of roughly $200 million it had already invested in Polymarket. That brings the firm’s total commitment to the platform to approximately $500 million across the two investments.
Polymarket was last valued at about $15 billion, according to the spokesperson’s account of the round. The new $21 billion valuation represents a roughly 40% increase in a matter of months, a pace that outstrips most private funding rounds in the broader technology sector.
Prediction Markets Let Users Bet on Real-World Outcomes
Polymarket and rival platform Kalshi allow users to place bets on the outcome of real-world events, ranging from statements a public figure might make to the results of reality television competitions. Both platforms have expanded rapidly over the past year as prediction markets have drawn wider retail and institutional interest.
The sector’s growth has coincided with a period of political and regulatory attention focused specifically on the companies operating in it, given the Trump family’s direct financial and advisory ties to both major platforms.
Trump Family Ties to the Sector Have Expanded
Donald Trump Jr. became an adviser to Kalshi in 2025 and received shares in the company worth more than $300,000, in addition to a separate advisory role at Polymarket. The 1789 Capital investment adds a direct ownership stake in Polymarket to that existing advisory relationship.
The overlap between the Trump family’s business interests and prediction markets has drawn scrutiny given the sector’s ongoing legal disputes with state regulators over whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket require state-level licensing to operate.
Federal Regulator Has Taken a Favorable Public Stance
Michael Selig, whom President Trump appointed to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, has publicly praised the two companies.
Selig and the CFTC have also opposed state efforts to regulate prediction market platforms directly, a dispute playing out in ongoing litigation between the industry and individual states.
President Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform in May that he expected prediction markets to do well during his administration. This statement predates this week’s funding round but reflects the same favorable posture the administration has taken toward the sector since.
What the Deal Signals for Prediction Market Valuations
The size of the round and the jump in Polymarket’s valuation suggest investors are pricing in continued growth for prediction markets even as the legal questions around state regulation remain unresolved. Whether that valuation holds depends in part on how the pending disputes between prediction market platforms and state regulators are eventually resolved.
Neither 1789 Capital nor Polymarket has disclosed additional investors participating in the round beyond confirming 1789 Capital’s role as lead investor.
