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- J.P. Morgan estimates Bitcoin’s average production cost at about $85,000, acting as a soft floor for the market.
- Bitcoin briefly moved above the $84,948 estimated cost last week after spending 280 days below it.
- Miners are shifting power infrastructure toward artificial intelligence, reducing the network hash rate by about 19%.
J.P. Morgan estimates Bitcoin’s average production cost at about $85,000, a level its analysts say can act as a soft floor for the market and a broad reference point for mining economics. Bitcoin briefly moved above the estimate last week after spending 280 days below it.
The bank’s Sept. 23 analysis, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, put the estimated cost at roughly $84,948 per Bitcoin. The measure represents an industry-wide estimate rather than the breakeven price for every individual mining company.
Bitcoin Spent 280 Days Below Estimated Cost
J.P. Morgan said Bitcoin remained below its estimated production cost for 280 days before briefly crossing the threshold during September’s rally. That exceeded a roughly 224-day stretch below estimated production cost during the 2018 downturn.
A sustained Bitcoin price above the threshold could reduce financial pressure on some higher-cost miners, according to the analysts. The analysts said operators facing weaker economics may sell Bitcoin, shut down inefficient machines or reduce mining activity.
$85,000 Acts as a Soft Floor
J.P. Morgan described production cost as a “soft floor” rather than a guaranteed minimum Bitcoin price. Individual miners have different electricity prices, equipment efficiency, financing costs and operating expenses, meaning profitability can vary substantially across the industry.
Bitcoin has since moved back below the estimated threshold, trading around $84,000 in recent sessions. J.P. Morgan said sustained prices above the modeled production cost could ease pressure across parts of the mining industry more than a brief move above the threshold.
Miners Shift Capacity Toward AI
Mining conditions have also changed as companies redirect power infrastructure toward artificial intelligence workloads. J.P. Morgan estimated Bitcoin’s network hash rate had fallen about 19% from its October 2025 peak, while mining difficulty had declined roughly 15%.
The analysts said slower hash-rate growth could cause Bitcoin’s estimated production cost to rise more slowly outside future halving events. The $85,000 figure therefore remains a modeled and changing threshold rather than a fixed long-term breakeven level.
