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- Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin may be entering a new four-year bull market after holding near $60,000.
- Timmer points to the positive 52-week Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and historical cycle patterns.
- Fidelity cautions that past cycles do not guarantee future performance as institutional ownership expands.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ director of global macro, says Bitcoin may be entering a new four-year bull-market cycle after spending much of the past year near the $60,000 support area. The view represents Timmer’s market assessment rather than an official Fidelity price forecast.
Timmer Says Bitcoin Winter May Be Ending
Timmer said Bitcoin had started moving higher after holding near $60,000 for almost a year. He compared that period with the length of previous Bitcoin bear markets.
“That’s how long a typical Bitcoin winter lasts, so I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway.”
Timmer did not describe the market bottom as confirmed. His outlook is based on Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior and recent market indicators.
Bitcoin-to-Gold Indicator Turns Positive
Timmer also pointed to the 52-week Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures how far the ratio has moved from its historical average. Timmer said similar positive shifts appeared near several previous Bitcoin cycle lows. He also uses a power-law model to compare Bitcoin’s current price with its longer-term historical growth trend.
Timmer Tracks Earlier Bitcoin Cycle Lows
Timmer’s Fidelity analysis identifies previous Bitcoin bear-market bottoms around January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. Bitcoin later reached a record above $126,200 in October 2025 before entering a prolonged decline.
Timmer has previously noted that another cycle bottom could occur around late 2026 if the historical pattern continued. That timing is not fixed and depends on whether Bitcoin continues to follow a similar long-term cycle structure.
Historical Pattern Offers No Guarantee
Fidelity has cautioned that Bitcoin’s past cycles are not exactly four years long and do not guarantee future performance. Bitcoin’s market structure has also changed as institutional ownership and spot crypto exchange-traded products have expanded. Timmer’s latest view therefore treats the four-year framework as a market signal rather than a fixed timetable for Bitcoin’s next move.
