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Key Takeaways
- Bessent said Treasury expects regular bond buybacks that could grow beyond the $4 billion previously announced, a move Connors says could ease pressure on Bitcoin.
- Connors projects buybacks could eventually reach $10 billion to $30 billion a month, though that figure is his own estimate, not a Treasury commitment.
- Connors set a Bitcoin price target of $180,000 to $360,000 through 2030 but warned of downside risk if the CLARITY Act stalls past September 15.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday the government expects to conduct regular buybacks of long-dated bonds and could expand their size beyond the $4 billion previously announce. This is a shift macro strategist Mark Connors said could ease a macro pressure that has weighed on Bitcoin.
What Bessent Announced
Bessent addressed the plan directly in an interview on CNBC.
“We want to show that yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals.”
The comments came as the 10-year Treasury yield traded around 4.68%, up three basis points on the day but off its earlier session high. Bitcoin added to its gains following the remarks, nearly reaching $73,000, before trading near $72,629.
Why Connors Sees the Buybacks as Significant
Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions and a longtime bond-market investor, described the buyback plan as an unusual intervention that signals the government is responding to pressure from rising long-term borrowing costs.
“This is the first tell.”
Connors said he expects Treasury purchases to grow beyond their initial size as the government works to find buyers for its debt. He expects support to potentially reach between $10 billion and $30 billion a month over time, a projection that is his own estimate rather than a figure Treasury has confirmed.
High Treasury yields can pull capital toward government bonds and away from risk assets including Bitcoin, and buybacks that support bond prices and help contain long-term yields could ease some of that pressure.
A Short Squeeze Setup Around $72,000
Separately, the $72,000 level carries added significance in the near term because of how leveraged traders are positioned. Charles Schwab director of crypto research Jim Ferraioli said earlier modeling showed a concentration of leveraged Bitcoin short positions clustered around that price.
If Bitcoin holds above $72,000 or continues rising through it, traders holding those short positions could close them voluntarily or face forced liquidation. Closing a short requires buying Bitcoin, which can add upward pressure to the price and trigger further liquidations in a self-reinforcing pattern.
Connors’ Price Targets, and Why They’re His Alone
Connors said his broader outlook for Bitcoin has shifted following the buyback announcement. He had previously expected the asset to remain subdued until November, tracking its traditional four-year price cycle, but said he is now less certain investors will need to wait that long.
He pointed to a potential change to the supplementary leverage ratio as a second step that could ease constraints and give banks more room to absorb government bonds. The supplementary leverage ration refers to the rule governing how much Treasury debt banks can hold relative to their capital,
Connors set a price target of $180,000 for Bitcoin as liquidity conditions improve, with a broader range of $180,000 to $360,000 for the current cycle through 2030.
Those figures represent Connors’ own forecast rather than a consensus view, and should be read as one strategist’s framework rather than an established price target shared across the market.
Connors’ framework treats the Treasury buyback plan as an early, still-small signal rather than a fully realized shift in market liquidity. The initial purchases Bessent described remain modest relative to the $10 billion to $30 billion monthly range Connors projects the program could eventually reach. This means the bullish case he outlined depends on a scaling-up that has not yet occurred and that Treasury has not committed to.
The CLARITY Act Risk to the Bullish Case
Connors flagged a near-term risk to that outlook tied to the CLARITY Act, the crypto market-structure bill still pending in the Senate. He said Bitcoin could come under pressure if the legislation fails to show progress by around September 15, even as regulators continue giving crypto companies room to operate in the meantime.
He described near-term price risk as tied directly to whether the bill advances from that date, and said he expects Bitcoin to fall from current levels if it does not.
That risk sits alongside the buyback-driven bullish case Connors laid out. This overall outlook depends on both a continued Treasury liquidity response and legislative progress arriving on a similar timeline, two developments that are not guaranteed to move together.
