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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin crossed $80,000 on Monday for the first time since May 15, now up roughly 38% from its late-June lows
- U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $1.9 billion last week, their strongest inflow since October 2025
- This week’s PCE inflation data will test whether the rally holds, since it’s being driven by Treasury and macro conditions rather than crypto-specific catalysts
Bitcoin crossed $80,000 on Monday for the first time since May 15, extending a rally that has accelerated over the past week. The advance follows a shift in U.S. Treasury bond-buying plans that traders are crediting with reviving demand for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Bitcoin Extends Its Recovery From June’s Selloff
Bitcoin traded near $77,382 as of Monday evening after touching the $80,000 level earlier in the session. The cryptocurrency is now up approximately 38% from the lows it hit in late June and early July, when it briefly fell below $58,000.
The move higher has unfolded gradually over the past several weeks, with Bitcoin climbing back through a series of resistance levels before clearing $80,000 for the first time in more than three months. The pace of the advance picked up notably over the past week.
ETF Inflows Post Their Strongest Week Since October
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in approximately $1.9 billion last week, the largest weekly inflow the funds have recorded since October 2025. The figure signals renewed participation from traditional investors alongside the broader market rally.
ETF flow data offers one of the clearest windows into institutional demand for Bitcoin, since the funds report net creation and redemption activity daily. A sustained run of inflows at that scale would mark a meaningful shift after a period of tighter financial conditions earlier this year.
Treasury Bond Buyback Plans Help Ease Financial Conditions
The broader crypto recovery gained momentum last week as falling Treasury yields provided relief after months of tight financial conditions. The U.S. Treasury doubled its planned buybacks of long-dated government bonds through early November, financing the purchases through increased short-term debt issuance.
Monday’s push above $80,000 came after the Treasury indicated it could draw on its General Account, the federal government’s primary operating cash balance, which held approximately $1 trillion, to help fund the buyback program.
Lower long-term yields tend to reduce the relative appeal of holding cash and government debt, a dynamic that has historically coincided with increased buying in higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The Treasury’s buyback program is a bond-purchase operation with a defined schedule, not a change in Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Traders are treating the expanded buybacks as a signal of looser financial conditions ahead, though the Treasury has not characterized the program as monetary policy easing.
This Week’s Inflation Data Will Test the Rally’s Footing
Investors are now watching a cluster of macroeconomic data due this week, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index. The reading will offer the clearest signal yet on whether price pressures are continuing to ease.
Thadeu Dos Santos, regional director at foreign exchange broker Infinox, said the inflation data carries added weight for markets in the current environment. A stronger-than-expected reading could support Treasury yields and the dollar, according to Dos Santos, while a softer print could reduce expectations for further tightening.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print could put renewed upward pressure on Treasury yields, working against the conditions that have supported Bitcoin’s advance over the past several weeks. A softer reading would likely reinforce the current trend.
Rally Remains Tied to Macro Conditions Rather Than Crypto-Specific Catalysts
The current advance stands out for being driven primarily by macroeconomic and fiscal policy developments rather than crypto-specific news, such as regulatory approvals or corporate treasury purchases.
That distinction matters for how durable the rally proves to be, since it leaves Bitcoin’s near-term path closely tied to Treasury policy and this week’s inflation data rather than industry-specific catalysts.
Whether Bitcoin holds above $80,000 or pulls back will likely depend on how the PCE data and subsequent Treasury communications land with markets in the coming days.
