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Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has acknowledged that his prediction of a Bitcoin supercycle in 2026 has not materialized, while maintaining that crypto will continue growing over the longer term. Zhao had argued in January that stronger global adoption could cause Bitcoin to break from its traditional four-year market cycle.
Bitcoin instead entered a sharp downturn after reaching a record above $126,000 in October 2025. The cryptocurrency fell toward $60,000 during the first half of 2026, while the downturn renewed debate over whether Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains intact.
CZ Steps Back From 2026 Supercycle Timing
Zhao originally told at the World Economic Forum in January that he had “very strong feelings” Bitcoin would experience a supercycle in 2026. He cited a more supportive U.S. policy environment and growing crypto adoption in other countries as reasons the historical cycle could break.
By June, Zhao had become more cautious about the timing. He said:
“We’re not a supercycle now, but will crypto die? Absolutely not. Crypto continues to grow.”
He added that he still expected a supercycle but was unsure when it would arrive.
Four-Year Cycle Remains Part of Market Debate
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is commonly associated with its halving schedule and the recurring periods of expansion and contraction that have followed previous halvings. Zhao said in June that the typical crypto cycle could be one factor behind the 2026 decline, alongside geopolitical tensions and capital moving toward artificial intelligence investments.
Other firms have also reconsidered predictions that the pattern would disappear. 21Shares said in June that it entered 2026 expecting Bitcoin to break the four-year cycle but acknowledged that six months of price action still looked familiar.
CZ Maintains Long-Term Crypto Outlook
Despite stepping back from a specific supercycle timeline, Zhao has not changed his longer-term view of the industry. He told that growing demand for financial technology and digital transactions should continue supporting crypto development.
The current downturn therefore leaves the supercycle thesis unresolved rather than confirmed. Bitcoin’s 2026 performance has so far kept the debate over the four-year cycle open rather than showing a clear break from the historical pattern.
