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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin rose about 4% to top $81,000 as odds of a September Fed rate hike fell to roughly even.
- Zcash led major tokens with a nearly 15% daily gain, while Bitcoin’s weekly move stayed muted at about 1%.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $277 million Thursday, though inflows haven’t yet formed a sustained streak.
Bitcoin traded above $81,000 during Asian morning hours on Friday, up about 4% over 24 hours, after traders sharply lowered the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase this month. The shift in rate expectations pulled bond yields lower and sent buyers into Bitcoin and other risk assets across the board.
Traders Cut Rate Hike Odds to a Coin Flip
Futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch tool now put the odds of a Fed rate increase this month at roughly even, down from above 63% earlier in the week.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gave the shift its trigger, saying he would support holding rates steady if inflation pressures kept easing. Treasuries and gold both held gains made in the prior New York trading session as the softer rate outlook took hold.
Zcash Leads Gains While the Broader Week Stays Muted
Zcash was the standout performer among major tokens, rising nearly 15% over 24 hours and 20% over the past week, extending a rally that has left it well ahead of the rest of the market.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token added about 6% and XRP gained nearly 6%. Ether, BNB and dogecoin each rose between 4% and 5%, while Solana climbed nearly 3% and TRON lagged with a gain of just over 1%.
The seven-day picture looks far more muted than the daily move. Bitcoin is up only about 1% over the past week, Ether and XRP are close to flat, and Solana and TRON have each fallen nearly 3% over the same period, according to exchange pricing data.
Bitcoin ETFs Take In $277 Million, but a Trend Remains Unconfirmed
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $277 million in inflows Thursday on provisional figures, following four consecutive trading sessions that alternated between inflows and outflows.
The funds have not yet strung together a sustained run of buying that would confirm institutional demand is driving the rally rather than reflecting a single-day rebound.
A Stronger Yen and a Broader Global Market Backdrop
Global equity markets extended their advance alongside crypto’s gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific index climbed nearly 1%, and the MSCI All Country World Index rose for a third consecutive day. The U.S. dollar steadied after sliding to its lowest level since May, while an index tracking Asian currencies reached levels last seen in October 2024.
The Japanese yen drew particular attention in Asian trading, strengthening about 2% on Thursday. The move erased roughly a month of gradual decline, as traders raised expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase and watched for the possibility of official currency intervention.
The yen pared some of that move to trade near 156.35 per dollar, having touched 155.30 in the prior session.
A stronger yen typically drains liquidity from carry trades that help fund positions in risk assets, but Bitcoin absorbed the currency move without giving back its gains.
Whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain positive through the end of the week will offer the clearest signal of whether institutional investors are treating this week’s shift in rate expectations as a durable move or a temporary rebound.
