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Bitcoin slipped toward $63,500 on Thursday after an in-line U.S. inflation report reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate increase without producing a sustained crypto rally.
Bitcoin was trading around $63,700 after ranging between roughly $63,300 and $64,300 during the session. July consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, down from 3.5% in June, while core inflation eased to 2.5%. Both annual readings matched forecasts.
September Rate-Hike Odds Fall to 38% After CPI
Fed funds futures priced about a 38% probability of a September rate increase after CPI, down from roughly 46% before the report. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, with three policymakers dissenting in favor of an increase.
The softer annual CPI figures gave policymakers little fresh urgency to raise rates, although underlying inflation remains elevated. Analysts estimate the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure is still running slightly above 3%.
Bitcoin briefly gained after Wednesday’s CPI release before surrendering the move and returning below $64,000.
PPI and Retail Sales Provide the Next Market Tests
Markets now turn to July producer-price data due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus estimates call for headline PPI to rise 0.2% from June and core PPI to increase 0.3%.
July retail sales follow Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The latest forecast expects sales to rise 0.2% month over month, matching the 0.2% increase recorded in June.
The Fed will publish minutes from its July 28-29 meeting on August 19, providing more detail on the 9-3 decision to hold rates steady.
August Jobs and CPI Reports Come Before September Fed Meeting
The Fed meets again on September 15-16. Before then, the August employment report is scheduled for September 4 and August CPI for September 11.
Bitcoin remains near $64,000 after July CPI produced little immediate repricing. PPI, retail sales and the September labor and inflation reports now provide the next scheduled tests for the Fed outlook.
